New Delhi: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is facing a potential existential crisis, according to top Indian strategic experts. As the world watches the growing tensions between the United States and its European allies, a former Indian diplomat has issued a stark warning: NATO could “completely disintegrate” if the US moves forward with its controversial stance on Greenland.
This statement comes at a time when India’s National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval has delivered a powerful message about India’s need for absolute strength to avoid “subjugation,” reinforcing why New Delhi continues to keep its distance from military alliances like NATO.
Here is a detailed breakdown of the latest NATO controversies and India’s calculated diplomatic stance in January 2026.
The “Greenland” Controversy: Why is NATO at Risk?
The biggest talking point this week is the renewed pressure from the US administration regarding Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark (a NATO member).
- The Warning: Former Indian diplomat Ashok Sajjanhar has warned that if the US moves to “occupy” or force control over Greenland against Denmark’s will, it would destroy the foundational principles of NATO.
- The Argument: NATO is built on “sovereignty” and “collective security.” If the leading member (US) threatens the territorial integrity of another member (Denmark), the trust that holds the alliance together would collapse.
- Expert View: Sajjanhar noted that while Denmark has offered cooperation on mineral exploration, it has ruled out discussions on sovereignty. He termed any forced move by Washington as “coercion, not negotiation.”
NSA Ajit Doval’s “Avenge History” Speech
While the West grapples with internal rifts, India is doubling down on its policy of Strategic Autonomy. On January 10, 2026, NSA Ajit Doval delivered a stirring speech to young leaders.
- Key Message: Doval stated that India must become strong not just militarily but in “economy, social development, and every aspect.”
- “Avenging History”: He used the phrase “avenge history” not in the sense of violence, but to ensure that India never again faces the “painful history of attacks and subjugation” it suffered in the past.
- The Connection: This philosophy explains why India rejects offers to join “NATO Plus.” India aims to build its own capabilities rather than relying on a security umbrella that might limit its independent foreign policy.
The “NATO Plus” Debate: Where Does India Stand?
Despite the turmoil in the West, there is still pressure from certain US lawmakers for India to join the “NATO Plus” framework.
- What is NATO Plus? It is a grouping of NATO and five treaty allies: Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Israel, and South Korea. It allows for seamless intelligence sharing and access to military tech.
- India’s Rejection: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has repeatedly clarified that “the NATO template does not apply to India.”
- Why? Joining such an alliance would hurt India’s ties with Russia (a key energy and defense partner) and force India into US-led conflicts that may not serve India’s national interest.
Impact on India
- Diplomatic Balance: The potential weakening of NATO puts India in a tricky spot. India needs a strong West to counter China but does not want US unilateralism to destabilize the global order.
- Arctic Interests: India has observer status in the Arctic Council. If the US-Denmark row over Greenland escalates, it could impact Arctic governance, where India has scientific and strategic interests.
- Self-Reliance: The chaos in NATO validates India’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (Self-Reliant India) push in defense. Relying on foreign alliances is proving to be unpredictable in 2026.
Conclusion
As 2026 begins, the global order looks fragile. The warning from Indian experts about NATO’s stability highlights the dangers of power politics within alliances. For India, the path forward remains clear: stay non-aligned, build internal strength, and watch the developments in the West with caution.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: Is India joining NATO or NATO Plus in 2026?
No. India has officially rejected the idea of joining NATO or the “NATO Plus” framework. The government maintains that military alliances do not suit India’s strategic culture.
Q2: Why did an Indian diplomat warn about NATO disintegrating?
Former diplomat Ashok Sajjanhar warned that if the US violates Denmark’s sovereignty over Greenland, it would undermine the core trust of the NATO alliance, leading to its potential collapse.
Q3: What did NSA Ajit Doval say recently?
On Jan 10, 2026, NSA Doval said India must build strength in all sectors (economy, military, social) to ensure it is never subjugated again, effectively “avenging” its colonial history through success.
Q4: What is the “Greenland” issue mentioned in the news?
There are reports of the US administration exerting pressure to gain control over Greenland for strategic reasons, which has caused diplomatic friction with Denmark, a NATO ally.
Q5: Which countries are in NATO Plus?
NATO Plus currently includes NATO members plus Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Israel, and South Korea.